Another huge game for Liverpool this week, having surprised many pundits with a win over Chelsea last week the task gets even harder on Sunday with a visit from league leaders Man City. Man City may have only dropped two points so far this season but playing a team like Man City may play into Liverpool’s hands, Liverpool have dropped points against the likes of Norwich and Swansea this season but have already beaten Chelsea and Arsenal and drawn with Man Utd so the bigger teams can often be more beatable.
The bookies don’t seem quite sure what to make of this match after Liverpool’s ‘surprise’ win against Chelsea, they clearly feel that with home advantage with Liverpool there is very little between the sides. Man City are edging favouritism at the time of writing, currently available at odds of 6/4, but Liverpool certainly aren’t far behind at 2/1 with most bookies. Those odds leave the draw at 12/5 generally and a draw would be seen as a pretty good result for Liverpool (and probably not a bad result for Man City), it would also mean Liverpool would be ten games unbeaten in all competitions and still unbeaten at home this season.
As previously mentioned, Man City have only dropped two points so far this season and surprisingly those dropped points came in an away match at Fulham when Man City gave up a two goal lead. It is interesting that those dropped points followed a midweek Champions League match at home to Napoli. It could be a case of déjà vu this week as Man City have had to travel to Naples during the week and any potential Champions League hangover could be multiplied by the travelling, it is worth noting that Man City were also a bit below par at QPR after their trip to Villarreal at the start of the month so at least a draw is definitely obtainable in this match.
It doesn’t pay to take too much notice of previous matches against Man City as their team has changed so much in recent years, the fact that Liverpool won three league meetings against Man City at Anfield 1-0 between 2006 and 2008 doesn’t have much of a bearing on this match but it is worth noting that Liverpool have already beaten Man City at Anfield in the last seven months, in April Liverpool beat Roberto Mancini’s team 3-0. That scoreline might tempt some at odds of 33/1 but better bets could be 0-0 or 1-1 draws, those bets would have been winners in the last three Liverpool home matches. The 0-0 draw is 12/1 with some bookies which looks a big price but there is even more cause for backing 1-1 at 6/1. Three of Liverpool’s six home games this season have finished 1-1 and in five of those matches Liverpool have conceded exactly one goal.
Whilst stats can help point the way in the correct score betting, there is no clear outstanding bet in the goalscorer betting, the last seven league goals scored by Liverpool have all been scored by different players. That means the bigger priced players could have as much chance as the favourites and two players worth backing to smallish stakes could be Craig Bellamy and Dirk Kuyt. Both know where the back of the net is and both will play in attacking roles if they start the match (if they don’t play you get your stake back). Bellamy looks a slightly stronger bet to score first at 9/1 but Kuyt is also worth backing as he should take penalties and is 11/1 to open the scoring.
Would you be happy with a point from this game? Can Liverpool gain another great win and inflict a first Premiership loss of the season on Man City? What are you backing in this match?
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