Liverpool host QPR this weekend with a win top of Kenny Dalglish’s Christmas list after the unexpected loss at Craven Cottage on Monday. That loss continued the theme of this season which has been get results against the bigger teams and struggle against the so called ‘lesser’ teams and this is something that needs to be corrected on Saturday with hopefully a convincing win.
Games against Fulham, Swansea, Norwich and Sunderland have yielded just three points so far this season despite three of those matches coming at home. Wins in those matches would put Liverpool just one point behind Man Utd and Liverpool need to apply their form against bigger teams to all matches, games against Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd and Arsenal have produced eight points for Liverpool this season. Liverpool have dropped points against two of the promoted sides at Anfield already this season and avoiding the hat trick on Saturday is crucial.
The bookies think it will be an easy win for Liverpool and those looking to back Liverpool to take all three points will be taking odds of just 1/3 which looks a little tight currently, especially with Liverpool winning just two of five games at home. The other five home games have all been draw so perhaps there is more value in backing that outcome at odds of 9/2 whilst the bookies give QPR next to no chance of inflicting a first home defeat of the season on Liverpool, the odds on a QPR win are 10/1 with most bookies.
Previous meetings look like they will have no bearing on this match, the last time QPR came to Anfield was in 1995 and Liverpool won that match 1-0. Recent form suggests that this could be a low scoring game, backing under 2.5 goals in Liverpool matches has been profitable in seven of Liverpool’s last eight league games and that looks a good bet again at 6/5 with the bookies actually favouring over 2.5 goals with odds of just 4/6. Liverpool should win this game really, despite struggles against sides like this, but Liverpool have won just one league game by more than one goal in the last two months so if Liverpool do win it could only be by a one goal margin, that outcome looks a good bet at 14/5 at the time of writing.
Ahead of this match it could be worth having an insurance bet on Heidur Helguson scoring for QPR. The Icelandic striker looks by far the biggest threat for QPR having scored six goals in seven games and if QPR score then he probably scores so 4/1 on him to net at anytime looks worth it, if that bet is a loser then Liverpool have probably kept a clean sheet. It’s been almost ten weeks since Luis Suarez last scored in the Premiership so his odds of 10/11 to score don’t make huge amounts of appeal, Liverpool’s most likely scorer could end up being Craig Bellamy and he is as big as 6/4 to score at anytime.
Will Liverpool return to winning ways in this match or is it going to be another struggle against a newly promoted side? Where can Liverpool finish this season? What are the best bets in this match?
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