The Euro 2012 final is Spain v Italy, not Spain v Germany as many had predicted but it is hard to argue that Italy don’t deserve their place in the final having been convincing winners against the Germans. The Spain v Italy odds suggest Spain have a little in hand of Italy in this match but the teams met in the group stage of Euro 2012 and Spain might have been considered lucky to get anything from that match so Italy certainly can’t be underestimated.
Spain are the favourites and will be fancied having won Euro 2008 and the World Cup 2010 but Italy also have some recent tournament success to brag about, they won the World Cup in 2006. If you think Spain are going to be winning an unprecedented third major tournament in a row you can get odds of 4/7 that they lift the trophy and a more attractive 6/5 that they win the final in 90 minutes. Italy are much bigger at 6/4 to become the Euro 2012 winners and 3/1 to win the game in 90 minutes but perhaps the best bet in these markets is the draw.
The draw has been the most common result in this fixture over the years, six of the twelve matches between these sides have ended all square whilst Italy hold the edge over Spain with four wins to two. The most recent meeting between these teams, just three weeks ago in this competition, was also a draw so everything seems to point to the odds of 9/4 being justified. The recent match was 1-1 and a repeat of that scoreline is a fair price at 6/1 but also at 6/1 is 0-0 and that looks the better of the correct score bets. The reason why this game could be lower scoring is Spain’s record in the knockout rounds of major tournaments, they last conceded a goal in this type of match in 2006, that was nine games ago, some of which went into extra time. On this basis Spain also appeal to keep a clean sheet and they can be backed at 7/5 to do so in 90 minutes against Italy.
There are some strong European Championship Final stats that punters should be aware of ahead of this match, none more so than the usual lack of goals in this game. The last two European Championships finals have only been won 1-0 and it is over thirty years since a European Championships final had over 2.5 goals. These two teams have been involved in plenty of ‘unders’ matches so far at Euro 2012 and another under 2.5 goals match is a good bet at 1/2 if you don’t mind betting at those sort of odds. At better odds a bet on 0-0 at half time could pay dividends at 11/8, that has been the half time score in three of the last four European Championships finals and was also the half time score in the match between Spain and Italy in Group C just a few weeks ago.
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