By Seun Ogunniyi
As a true and dedicated fan, I will like to add my own bit to our quest for the top 4 position. I did a little bit of research and came up with the table below.
| SEASON | TOTAL POINTS BY THE 4TH PLACED TEAM | TOTAL POINTS BY LIVERPOOL | MATCHES LOST BY THE CHAMPION,POINTS BY CHAMPION | |
| 12/13 | 73 | 61 | 5,89 | |
| 11/12 | 69 | 52 | 5,89 | |
| 10/11 | 68 | 58 | 4,80 | |
| 9/10 | 70 | 63 | 6,86 | |
| 08/09 | 72 | 86 | 4,90 | |
| 07/08 | 76 | 76 | 5,87 | |
| 06/07 | 68 | 68 | 5,89 | |
| 05/06 | 67 | 82 | 5,91 | |
| 04/05 | 61 | 58 | 1,95 | |
| 03/04 | 60 | 60 | 0,90 | |
The table above represents data from the past 10 seasons of the BPL. Based on it am going to make some generalisations and conclude on some facts. It may end up wrong, but then it must be the target of the Liverpool team in our quest for UCL football
With the way things are going this season Arsenal has already lost 2, same goes for Chelsea (only Everton has lost one thus far, I stand corrected but I don’t consider them title challengers). Let’s agree that the champions for this season will lose at least 4 or 5 matches putting the total point haulage of such a team at 91 maximum. Now that is not our concern (forgive me for that).
The 4th position is of more concern to us and looking at the table again, the maximum point haulage for a team that finished in that position in the last 10 years was 73. But am going to put the range between 68 and 73(I will ignore the 03/04 and 04/05 seasons).
We already have 27 points thus far, meaning we need 46 more points to automatically qualify for this position. We have played 14 matches, remaining 24 more.
For us to be able to garner 46 points between now and May, we need 13 wins, 7 draws and a maximum of just 4 losses- for a total of 24 remaining matches. The 13 wins will give us 39points while the 7 draws will give us 7points, making a total tally of 46.
I made a naive breakdown below. Please note that I want us to win all our matches and beat the other 19 teams to the title but we need to be realistic here.
So the table below summarizes a lot about what we need to do, any deviation from it without appropriate compensation may be disastrous. Yes it will break the heart of every Liverpool fan if we don’t qualify for UCL this season.
| S/N | TEAM TO PLAY, Home/Away | EXPECTED RESULT |
| 1 | WEST HAM,H | WIN |
| 2 | SPURS,A | DRAW |
| 3 | CARDIFF,H | DRAW |
| 4 | MAN CITY,A | LOSS |
| 5 | CHELSEA,A | LOSS |
| 6 | HULL,H | WIN |
| 7 | STOKE,A | DRAW |
| 8 | ASTON VILLA,H | WIN |
| 9 | EVERTON,H | WIN |
| 10 | WEST BROM,A | DRAW |
| 11 | ARSENAL,H | DRAW |
| 12 | FULHAM,A | WIN |
| 13 | SWANSEA,H | WIN |
| 14 | SOUTHAMPTON,A | LOSS |
| 15 | SUNDERLAND,H | WIN |
| 16 | MAN UNITED,A | LOSS |
| 17 | CARDIFF,A | DRAW |
| 18 | SPURS,H | WIN |
| 19 | WEST HAM,A | WIN |
| 20 | MAN CITY,H | DRAW |
| 21 | NORWICH,A | WIN |
| 22 | CHELSEA,H | WIN |
| 23 | CRYSTAL PALACE,A | WIN |
| 24 | NEWCASTLE,H | WIN |
From the above realistic overview, based on the strength of the team, we have 13 more wins (39 points), 7 draws (7 points) and 4 losses. This should be the threshold standard for the remainder of our season, anything below spells doom in our campaign for UCL football and any hope whatsoever of retaining the services of Luis.
It has been a pleasure composing the above piece; it was put together in a hurry so please pardon the error(s) that may exist therein.