Computer: Newcastle have ‘3%’ chance of Anfield win

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Newcastle don’t have a prayer of pulling off a shock victory over Liverpool this weekend if a computer estimation is to be believed.

The prediction is based on FiveThirtyEight‘s revision to the Soccer Power Index, a rating mechanism for football teams which now takes account of over half a million matches, and on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

Even though they earned a deserved victory at Champions League outfit Spurs last month, their chances of repeating at Anfield have been rated at a meagre three percent.

They have only been given a 12% chance of claiming a point, putting Liverpool’s chances of victory at a whopping 85%.

Few would dispute the Reds’ tag of overwhelming favourites given their imperious Premier League unbeaten run at Anfield (stretching back to April 2017) and record top-flight winning streak (currently standing at 13).

We ran out 4-0 winners on Newcastle’s last visit in December 2018.

For what it’s worth, the computer also has Liverpool’s chances of winning the league at 36%, relative to 59% for Manchester City.

You can see the data for yourself here.

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