There’s one thing that’s suggesting that Liverpool will comfortable dispatch the Champions League runners up this weekend, and that’s expected goals (or xG).
If you’re not used to looking at statistics like this – it’s actually straight forward, or at least I’ll try to make it seem as such!
The xG statistics only get better with a larger sample size – so the more games that’s been played, the more accurate they will be.
xG represents the likelihood that a team will create goal-scoring opportunities by taking in a wide variation of factors such as how often players hit the target and how likely they are to pass or shoot.
These statistics are used to work out the reliability of a player or team, in terms of expected goals scored, instead of looking at their individual quality.
So with all that said, let’s take a look at these statistics heading into Liverpool’s big clash with Spurs this weekend.
The Premier League 'Big 6' xG after 9 games:
Manchester City – 29.54 (29 goals +0.54)
Chelsea – 19.54 (19 goals +0.54)
Liverpool – 18.46 (21 goals -2.54)
Manchester United – 12.93 (10 goals +2.93)
Arsenal – 12.64 (13 goals -0.36)
Tottenham – 10.81 (15 goals -4.19)
— The Tactical Times (@Tactical_Times) October 25, 2019
As you can see from the Tweet above by The Tactical Times, the Reds are over-performing and Spurs are barely able to create themselves one solid expected goal per game.
Liverpool, on the other hand, are hitting opposition teams for an expected two goals per game. This will not come as welcome news for our guests on Sunday.