Opta’s supercomputer has now ranked Liverpool’s chances of winning the Champions League after the 1-0 defeat to Galatasaray.
The Merseysiders succumbed to their third competitive defeat of the season in Istanbul, with Victor Osimhen tucking away a match-winning penalty in the first half.
Arne Slot’s men now find themselves in 16th place in the league phase, lagging behind the competition. Albeit, after only two games played in the 2025/26 Champions League campaign.
| Position | Team | Points |
| 15th | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 |
| 16th | Liverpool | 3 |
| 17th | Chelsea | 3 |
| 18th | Galatasaray | 3 |
* The Champions League league phase table after Liverpool played two games in the 2025/26 campaign
@empireofthekop 🗣️ Arne Slot reacts to the Galatasaray 1 – 0 Liverpool result in the Champions League #fyp #arneslot #lfc #ucl #liverpool ♬ original sound – Empire of the Kop
Opta predicts Arsenal will win the Champions League over Liverpool
The Opta supercomputer has now handed Arsenal favourable odds, in terms of winning the competition, after beating Olympiakos 2-0 at home.
Liverpool are still considered top contenders – even despite incumbent champions PSG also winning their opening two games – with a 14.7% chance of lifting silverware.
Results shared on X (formerly Twitter) list the top three likeliest teams to win the Champions League this season:
- Arsenal (18.09%)
- Liverpool (14.7%)
- PSG (13.96%)
Prior to that point, however, PSG and Arsenal have been consistently placed in the top two to progress through each knockout round.
The Opta supercomputer has a new favourite for the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League title following the action on Matchday 2.
Check the latest projections here. ⬇️
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) October 2, 2025
For what it’s worth, the Reds are still currently projected to pip competitors Arsenal to the Premier League title by the same supercomputer.
Who will win the Champions League in 2025/26?
Intriguingly, Liverpool are apparently set to enjoy a less rock and roll start to their Champions League campaign.
| Projected position (based on projected points) | Team | Projected Champions League points |
| 1st | Arsenal | 18.51 |
| 2nd | PSG | 17.39 |
| 3rd | Bayern Munich | 16.07 |
| 4th | Real Madrid | 15.59 |
| 5th | Man City | 15.57 |
| 6th | Liverpoool | 15.39 |
* Opta supercomputer’s points projection for the 2025/26 Champions League season
As we discovered last term, of course, finishing top of the group doesn’t necessarily carry with it a serious advantage.
The Premier League champions-to-be met eventual winners PSG in the round of 16 last term, with a penalty shootout at Anfield deciding the tie.
More to the point, few would have expected Luis Enrique’s men to end up lifting the trophy in Munich after only picking up 13 points from their eight games. To put things into perspective, the Ligue 1 giants finished behind PSV and AC Milan in the league phase!
So, ultimately, a potential slow start shouldn’t be considered detrimental to Liverpool’s chances of winning a first Champions League title since 2019.
There’s a long, long way to go yet!
Join our channel of readers on WhatsApp to get the day’s top stories straight to your mobile
It’ll be fascinating to see how this projection turns out. Sometimes they’re ballpark, other times not so.
For the sake of the article, I’d be satisfied with 6th. We’d be through without extra play-offs.
Let Arsenal, RM, PSG, Inter, Bayern and Qarabag (😲Wow ! What’s happened there ??!) spend their energies on top place.
We’ll quietly get on with doing enough, whilst making sure we keep maximising what we can in the EPL.
Looking at Chelsea, I’d say that’s their strategy atm.
You don’t need a computer to tell you that if we don’t improve we’ve got no chance of winning anything let alone the champions league. Last season we got outplayed twice by the eventual winners PSG , and they are still the team to beat. They have the best two full backs in the world, and the best midfield. They keep the ball so well. Which is something we have to be better at. We just spent 450 million and the question to ask is are we a better team than last season. The midfield hasn’t improved, and if you play wirtz there it’s a lot weaker. The new full backs are not an improvement so far. Also if you can’t beat the likes of crystal palace in three attempts you ain’t gonna beat PSG. It was why we fell short in the champions league last season, the midfield isn’t good enough, Alexis mac allister, Szoboszlai and gravenberch ain’t gonna win you the champions league. And if they are missing there’s a big drop in quality with jones and endo. The best teams can keep the ball, pass the ball forward, not square backwards. So forget a winning the champions league. We can’t even beat palace.
Touched ?
😪
All that text for so little content. Are you ‘bot ?
Think he’s a bit lonely, JA.
Just keeps repeating. Is he Manu or Bitta?
“if YOU can’t beat the likes of Palace”., “ain’t going to win YOU the UCL”, “YOU play Wirtz”.
Bit sloppy, lad.