It doesn’t take the most forensic of analysis to deduce that Liverpool’s fortunes under Arne Slot have plummeted from last season to this, but one eye-opening statistic has come to light which neatly sums up the extent of the drop-off.
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A year on from preparing to parade the Premier League trophy around a jubilant Anfield, the Reds have gone into the final fortnight of this campaign still uncertain of their Champions League status for 2026/27, even with fifth in the English top flight being good enough to qualify.
Results and performances under the Dutchman have deteriorated, and the extent of the booing which greeted the final whistle of the 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea last weekend made it unmistakably clear that even the patience of many match-going loyalists has now run out.
Opta figures reveal damning Liverpool xG stat
On Tuesday afternoon, Opta Analyst on X posted a statistic which comes a damning indictment of where Slot’s Liverpool now find themselves.
It explained: ‘For the first time since Arne Slot arrived, Liverpool’s six-game rolling average non-penalty xG against in the Premier League has been higher than their rolling average non-pen xG for across more than one game.’
From a high of 3 xG For and just over 0.5 Against in the early weeks of 2025, there’s now a discrepancy of almost 0.5 xG in the Against direction over the past six top-flight matches.
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The numbers don’t lie – Liverpool have been poor lately
We get that xG figures aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, and even a casual observer of Liverpool this season would be able to see the problems which have dogged Slot’s side, but the numbers from our last six Premier League games (via Fotmob) are interesting to note nonetheless.
| Liverpool non-penalty xG | For | Against |
| Brighton (1-2) | 1.03 | 2.17 |
| Fulham (2-0) | 1.59 | 1.04 |
| Everton (2-1) | 1.45 | 0.79 |
| Crystal Palace (3-1) | 1.14 | 2.26 |
| Man United (2-3) | 0.88 | 2.34 |
| Chelsea (1-1) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| Average from six games | 1.11 | 1.52 |
The drop-off in xG For over the last couple of matches can be partly explained by the injuries which have ruled out Hugo Ekitike, Mo Salah and (for the Man United game) Alexander Isak, but there’s no mitigation for the worryingly high xG Against figures from the two matches prior to last weekend.
That the Reds won 3-1 at home to Crystal Palace despite having twice as many xG Against than for would indicate that we got out of jail that afternoon, and the two defeats listed above could easily have been a lot more comprehensive than the eventual one-goal margins.
Those numbers add quantitative evidence to the eye test of just how unconvincing Liverpool have been in recent weeks, despite the three successive top-flight wins in April which look like they might just get us over the line in the race for Champions League qualification.
At least there was a substantial improvement in xG Against last Saturday, but what matters most now is that Slot’s team get the results which’ll secure a top-five finish. Ideally, those would also be accompanied by performances to allow us to end this dismal campaign on a somewhat high note.
Given that Frimpong is a Nunez clone with speed and no direction, and Slot’s insistence on Kerkez when he was clearly struggling and Robertson was miles better, I am really concerned about what Slot is likely to do with incomings in the summer.
Training is clearly an issue as well with all the injuries. He’s continually dissed younger and academy players and refused to play them. We could use Kelleher and Quansah now!!
Likely to be very expensive signings or so-called bargains coming in.
Slot was hired because of his “abilities” to get the most from his players?! Since he arrived the only player that improved (briefly) was Gravenberch. Everyone else has gone backwards but for some reason we are meant to believe next season would be better 🤣
Klopp did not see the potential in gravenberch as a dm as he was a number 8 in Germany. However slot playing a 4231 needs dm and he plays gravenberch as a possible dm and the rest is history. However we can see this season that gravenberch is not satisfied to be a dm and we should get a proper dm so he can unleash his attacking abilities.
Xg matters the least to a person whose objective is to avoid defeat.
I’m sorry but for 15 months this team has regressed so badly under this clueless coach,he plays players out of position ( and fails ) sticks with playing Gapko who needs selling in the summer because he’s 🐶💩
I truly can’t believe he plays most games and has about 10 touches, can’t run or press,and is just terrible…If Slop stays I’m done and taking a sabbatical because we will be in a relegation battle with him at 5he wheel…
Agreed. Same with Konate and Kertez when Gomez and Robertson do so much better a job.
Slot continually proves the definition of madness: continuing to do the same thing over and over hoping for a different result.
Sorry Kerkez.