As players’ energy levels and managerial frustrations about fixture overload are pushed to the limits over the festive period and into the New Year, the Christmas period in late December is always an intriguing time of a Premier League season.
The midway point of the campaign arrives, and that plays into the ‘Top at Christmas’ factor. This is also a popular time for punters to assess the lay of the land and the best football odds | UKClubSport and other services offer in the title race.
Liverpool and Arsenal both know that a victory in their head-to-head at Anfield on Saturday would see them at the top of the tree on 25 December, with Chris Sutton predicting a narrow home win for the Reds this weekend.
Top at Christmas
Sitting at the top of the Premier League on Christmas Day has long been used as a predictive benchmark of success in the title race. That’s because it usually falls right on the midway point of the top-flight season.
Whoever is top of the table at that point effectively has the job half done. It is obviously never as cut-and-dried as that, though, as another 20 games to trudge through isn’t easy. Nonetheless, the ‘top at Christmas’ factor is interesting to assess as it’s mentioned every year.
So where do Liverpool stand in all of this?
2023/24 Season
Following a come-from-behind win at Crystal Palace on 9 December, Liverpool finished matchweek 16 of the Premier League top of the table, but a goalless draw at home to Manchester United last Sunday allowed Arsenal to usurp them at the summit.
At least the Reds have the opportunity to take top spot back off the Gunners if they can get the better of Mikel Arteta’s side this weekend.
As Liverpool fans will know, though, the club have a dodgy relationship with being at the summit at this particular point of the season. Prior to 2023/24, Liverpool had been top of the Premier League halfway through the campaign on six occasions. Only Manchester United have led the way more often on 25 December (seven).
EPL Top at Christmas Count
7: Man United
6: Liverpool
5: Chelsea
3: Arsenal, Man City
2: Newcastle
1: Aston Villa, Blackburn, Leeds, Leicester, Norwich
The Conversion
However, only once from those six occasions when leading the way on 25 December did Liverpool go on to win the title. That was when they put together their runaway success in the 2019/20 campaign.
Liverpool were again top at Christmas the following year, albeit only after 14 matches, with Man City eight points behind them. By the time the actual midway point of that season came along, however, Liverpool were down in fifth, having taken only three points from their subsequent five games.
The Reds somehow conspired to finish 17 points adrift of league winners City in third place in 2021, a much more bitter pill to swallow than their title miss by a single point in 2018/19 was after leading at Christmas.
We also led the way on 25 December in 2008/09 and 2013/14, only to finish second to Manchester opposition in both campaigns.
The Last Five Years
There are no guarantees in football, of course. Three times in the last five seasons, the halfway leader has failed to turn the screw and go on and take the title. Unfortunately for Reds fans, two of those three occasions were Liverpool’s downfall.
Last season, Arsenal were in a commanding position when the Christmas presents were opened, but Mikel Arteta’s men got a taste of the severe pressure and strain that Manchester City in title-hunting mode can put on opponents.
| Season | Top at Christmas | Title Winners |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal | Man City |
| 2021/22 | Man City | Man City |
| 2020/21 | Liverpool | Man City |
| 2019/20 | Liverpool | Liverpool |
| 2018/19 | Liverpool | Man City |
Who Are the Premier League Kings of Christmas?
Unfortunately, we know it’s not Liverpool.
Each of Chelsea’s five Premier League titles came after being top at Christmas. The most recent was in 2016/17 when Antonio Conte drove them to success, so the Blues have a 100% record conversion rate.
However, the overall picture is as muddy and irrelevant as you would expect it to be. Only 53% of league titles in England have been won by the team top at Christmas. There are just too many variables over a block of 18 further matches for the festive picture to simply remain unchanged.
The January transfer window can be a game-changer. Also, it takes special qualities to win a league title, and that’s why this is little more than a worthless 50/50 stat.
All Quickly Forgotten
The funniest thing about it all is that the ‘Top at Christmas’ talk is so short-lived. Football moves quickly and it’s all hands to the pump immediately on 26 December, when everything potentially gets all messed up again and all the talk becomes irrelevant.
If Liverpool are top of the pile on Christmas morning, they’ll be hoping to avoid the Boxing Day blues when they face a tricky trip to Turf Moor to take on Burnley on the 26th.
Perhaps what should fall into focus is a reassessment of the standings with 10 games to go – a ‘Top At Ten’, let’s call it, which would give a much stronger indicator of where the title is likely to end up.
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